Monday 3 February 2014

10am update - equity bulls in trouble

US equities begin the month with some minor weak chop. Metals are moderately higher, Gold +$4. Perhaps most notable, the VIX has already broken into the 19s - above last weeks double top, the 20s will be hit on any break <sp'1767.


sp'daily5


sp'weekly7b, HS


Summary

*ignoring the minor cycles this hour...
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We have clear BEAR flags on the daily indexes.

The weekly charts offer 10MA resistance around 1810..and frankly, even 1800 looks difficult right now.
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Key issue to note...the 200 day MA is now 1707, whilst the lower weekly bollinger has jumped to 1691.

Indeed..1710/1690 is the downside target zone, on any break <1767.
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Notable movers: FB, TWTR, both +1-2%, although in the grand scheme of things, those are not exactly the most dynamic of moves.
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10.01am  lousy ISM data...51... that sure is not helping...indexes in real danger here.

...eyes to the VIX 19.16....!

We're starting to confirm the bear flags...and VIX is similarly confirming it.

The door..is opening to 1710/1690


10.13am...BREAK BREAK BREAK

All thats left now is 1767..to confirm it.  VIX sure confirms the break.. 19.52


10.14am... TAPER'1 low...taken out.

Its GAME OVER bulls...game over.    Time to wave the white flag..and come back another 60/80pts lower.


10.20am.. fast and dirty....the whole week ahead....

*not surprisingly, whilst the market has taken out key support, clown finance TV is more concerned with superbowl commercials.


10.26am... VIX 20s...another KEY break.

First time in the 20s..since early October..over 17 weeks ago!

It sure looks like we're headed for 1710/1690..by end of this week.

*metals catching a 'safety' bid...Gold +$16..but still under old broken support.
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10.34am...thats right people..we're on the way.

For those with some time..go check the bigger monthly charts.. Dow is set for the first break since late 2012

VIX looks pretty strong overall. Any daily close..even the 19s would be important.