Friday, 10 January 2014

Can good news be good news?

Mr Market has effectively flat lined in a very narrow 1% trading range since early Tuesday. The next issue for Mr Market is whether good jobs data (if >200k) can be considered as 'good news'. Based on the recent QE-taper reaction...I'd have to guess..yes.



So, another day of minor chop for the main market, but then, it is not entirely unexpected. Across the last two years - during this giant near straight-up ramp from sp'1074, we've seen the bulls often just chop the market sideways for a few days...rather than allow the bears to drive a wave lower.

re: weekly'8. The above scenario still looks on track, with a small 3% down move late Jan/early Feb. At the moment, I do not see <sp'1800 viable until the summer.

Looking ahead

Friday will of course be all about the big jobs data. Market consensus is seeking net gains of 200k, with a static headline jobless rate of 7.0%. Those are not particularly bold targets, and I expect them to be exceeded.

My best guess... 236k...with 6.9%.

*there is sig' QE-pomo to end the week.. $2.5/3.5bn... bears beware!

A fast week

Maybe it is just me, but this week has flown by. Despite the main indexes seeing minor chop, there has been plenty of dynamic action in individual stocks and sectors.

No doubt..things are just getting started this year. If the equity bears are lucky, we'll see that major wave lower, one that chartists and market commentators have been seeking for at least the past year.

Goodnight from London