Friday 31 January 2014

1pm update - battle continues

The bulls have managed another notable bounce from sp'1770, but the bigger daily charts still look ugly, with very clear bear flags. VIX turned briefly negative. Risk of further upside to the low 1800s, but with significant downside still viable...including a key break of 1767 - the taper'1 low.


sp'daily5


sp'weekly7


Summary

The daily bear flags are suggestive..'no higher than sp'1800' in the near term.

Weekly charts are still bearish, with the lower bollinger rising to 1795 next week.
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Risk/reward for those re-shorting into the weekend..is rather good.

Notable weakness: AMZN -9.6%, UGAZ -5.6%
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1.30pm.. VIX trying to creep higher, with sp'1784. The hourly 10MA is holding as resistance on the indexes @ sp'1789.

Hourly MACD cycle still moderately bullish, but vulnerable to rolling negative into the close.

Metals weak..after opening gains, Gold -$3, with the miners weak, GDX -1.1%