Tuesday 14 January 2014

11am update - bulls need 1835 to offer a real turn

The main indexes are trying to build gains, but until the sp' is back >1835, there is no clear turn yet. The VIX is reflecting a market that has no fear, despite the significant Tuesday declines. Metals are mixed, with Gold trying to turn positive.


sp'60min


Summary

So...we're pushing higher, but until we see a few candles above the hourly 10MA - 1832 (and declining each hour)...I won't be confident that a C wave floor is in at 1815.

Still risk of a further minor wave lower into early tomorrow.

Regardless, as noted yesterday..in the closing hour...bears had an opportunity to exit at 1818..with VIX in the mid 13s. How many are now complaining about this mornings rally?

--
Notable strength: DRYS, +3.3%


... but until it re-takes $4, it remains vulnerable.


11.07am..market testing the hourly 10MA...so..we're at high risk of a failure here.

I could almost understand the day traders shorting in this 1830/35 zone, but hey...the bigger trends are bullish..so..its overly risky in my view.

UAL +3.3%...  RIG +1.5%, the latter trying to recover from a strong Monday decline.


11.24am..bulls starting to take control.  Perhaps most notable... VIX -9% @ 12.00

Precious metals snap lower.. Gold -$12