Friday, 24 January 2014

10am update - follow through weakness

For the first time since last October, equity bears are seeing two days of sig' downside in a row. How we close today will be critical. Metals are higher, with Gold breaking back above old support for first time since mid November. VIX is +12% in the mid 15s.




*there is a lot to cover, but I think the above two charts cover the bigger issues right now.

Clearly, the break <1815 confirms the dow break <16174...bulls are in trouble.

The old leader - Trans, which even managed to close yesterday higher, is getting smashed this morning, biggest fall since last August.

*I should note, there is sig' QE of $2-3bn this hour...bears should at least be tightening short-stops right now.

To the doomer bears out there...

All those still looking for a mid size collapse wave, should be clawing for a end Jan close <1767 - the FOMC low. If that 'miracle' occurred, it'd break the weekly up trend..and make things real interesting for March/April.

As it is, I don't expect that, but then..I didn't expect this morning's follow through either.

10.11am.. minor bounce underway, but really...bulls need to clear 1830 before out of the problem zone.

Hey, at least its not a boring end to the week, right?

10.20am..battling it out at the 50 day of sp'1813/12.  Although yes...the Dow is already well below.

The real issue here is how big a bounce will the bulls get.

10.36am Consider this....

It taken the bears FOUR weeks to knock the market down from 1850 to 1809....

2.5% over FOUR weeks.  That is truly lousy