Thursday, 7 February 2013

Volatility fails to hold gains

With the indexes seeing their usual afternoon ramp, the VIX lost almost all of the earlier gains of 7%. The VIX closed fractionally higher, +0.7% @ 13.50. It remains an utterly fearless market.




Not much to say. First target remains the lower end of the gap zone of 16-18.

If the SP' can break lower next week down to the 1470/60s, then VIX should 'very briefly' spike into the 17/18s.

A move above VIX 20' seems unlikely until at least the May. Indeed, one little issue is whether we'll see single digit VIX by April/May - with SP'1550/1600s ?

More later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

A red close, but clearly another major disappointment for those bears seeking a 3-5 day retracement. With the close comfortably above sp'1500 level, the bulls claim yet another little victory. Dollar largely held onto most of the gains, but the VIX was weak into the close.



The bulls are comfortably holding all those strong gains from January.

As has been the case for two weeks, the bulls can sustain a move all the way down to the 1450s without causing any real damage of the short/mid-term upward trend.

*AAPL exploded in the closing 15minutes. I don't know why.

AAPL, 1min

Its been a real messy trading week, and we've still one day left!

*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - weak bears

Bears can't even hold an index decline of 0.5%...again. Very disappointing, and it really dents those limited hopes of a break below sp'1490 into the weekend. VIX is only 4% higher now, and is in danger of closing red. Urghhh!




Frustrating..really doesn't quite cover it.

2pm update - bears need to push!

Mr Market is holding to moderate declines of 0.4% or so. After the Tuesday rebound, bears are understandably paranoid Friday might be a ramp day. However, both dollar and VIX are maintaining much of their earlier gains.




The earlier bounce has really rattled a fair few out there. I'm seeing a lot of moody posters out there, all disgusted at the move from 1499 to 1405..

Bears need to close <1500, with VIX in the mid 14s.

Even more important though, bears need follow through tomorrow- which of course was the big failure on Tuesday. 

Metals remain back around the earlier lows after that nasty morning ramp.

SLV, weekly2

I remain seeking 29/28s..before a major ramp into the late spring to 38/40

back at 3pm

12pm update - weakness into the close?

Well, we're back under sp'1500 again, and so the bears are coming out of their caves. The old retracement target zone of 1470/55 is back in play. With dollar and VIX significantly higher, bears have a reasonable chance of breaking <1490 by the weekend.



Its certainly starting to look like a bit of a choppy top has formed on the daily chart.

Obvious downside zone is the rising support -currently in the 1450s.

more later..on the metals...

time for lunch...

VIX update..

back later


Metals are seeing one crazy whipsaw day. Initial break lower, then snap falling back to the opening levels.

SLV, hourly

Nasty market
Indexes seen a bounce..but is that it?

Bear sure do need a close below sp'1500.

11am update - back under sp'1500

Mr Market is lower, but after the Tuesday rebound, these declines are extremely unreliable. Two major bearish aspects so far today..dollar is now significantly higher, DXY 80.22, and VIX is +6% in the mid 14s.




Bears need these declines to hold, with follow through tomorrow, but then, that was the issue on Monday, and we all saw how Tuesday panned out.

Very messy market.

*I believe Oscar Carboni - aka, permabull, was long this morning, and thats 0 for 4 now. I believe he is going to do a 'firing squad' video later today, after his recent 'rope' one.

If pro traders like him are getting whipsawed..that does say something about the type of market we've currently in.

*Metals rebounded very strongly, with Gold flipping from -$12 to +$4.

I really can't fathom why that is.

10am update - morning skirmish

Mr Market is opening with some minor chop. Bulls will obviously want to bust over sp'1515..whilst the bears need a close back <1500.  Dollar is moderately higher..slipping into the DXY 80s. Metals have seen a moderate snap lower just earlier.



SLV, daily


Minor I type, but really, why would today be any different than yesterday?

Even a close <1500 is largely irrevelent, and anyone touting doom needs to go stare at the POMO schedule for a few hours.

POMO melt to the moon

The US and world markets look set for massive gains across 2013. With continued massive central bank printing..and further rounds already being touted, it now looks utterly implausible that we'll see anything other than sporadic 'minor multi-week' declines.

sp'monthly6 - scenarios


I could go on a long rant about what is currently happening - not least amongst the financial blogs/chartists, but really, whats the point?

The ONLY thing of importance is.....POMO.

That is really all that needs to be said.

So long as the POMO money - 45bn, per month, EVERY month, is occurring, this market is not going to see a major multi-month decline.- as we saw in summers 2010 and 11.

Sure, we could fall, 2, 3, 5, even 10%, at some point this year, but how is that significant, if the broader upward trend continues?

Scenario outlook

Right now, 2013 is looking even better for the bulls than 2012 was. With the POMO $, algo-bots, and cheer leaders on clown finance TV, it looks like we'll close 2013 somewhere in the sp'1700s.

Broad rough scenario..

-rally into april/may 1550/1600
-minor 1-2 month decline..1400..perhaps 1350.
-rally all the way into year end, min' 1650, likely 1700s... possible 1800s.

I sincerely 'wish' I could hope for major declines - as many are STILL touting, but really, I can't. 

The bears have been nuked EVERY single year since the March 2009 lows, why would it end now? The old truth was indeed right all along. 'Don't fight the fed'.

If we do close the year in the sp'1700/1800s, what are the doomer bears going to say then?

*Just reflect for a moment on that question, but in 2010/11, when some were asking 'are 1400s, 1500s even possible, before the next collapse wave?'.

This market looks set for a continued rally to the moon. From what I hear, there are still some seats available on the rocket ship.

Want to get aboard?

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes managed to hold onto the Tuesday gains..and this was yet another victory for those who are incessantly buying the proverbial dip. Bears are powerless, unable to hold the market down for even a few hours. Its an entirely laughable situation.



Another day where minor opening declines failed to develop into anything..and with nothing going on...the algo-bots took control.

Melt up....fuelled by POMO $.

Its that simple.

We shall see endless months...years of days like today..until the POMO train stops..which it might never.