Friday 27 December 2013

The big shift that so few see

Another day higher for the US and world equity indexes. After a year where the old leader - Transports, is up around 39%, it remains truly bizarre to see the usual (online) suspects tout 'imminent doom'. No doubt they'll still be doing it at sp'1900, 2000...and so forth.


Dow' weekly


Dow'monthly'2, rainbow


Summary

Another good day for those who remain long and strong... equities. For those who are still unable to resist shorting the indexes..or who are long volatility, this remains a market of perpetual pain and bitter misery.


Holding to the original summer outlook

sp'weekly4 - hyper bullish outlook


The outlook continues to be a likely intermediate top next spring, before a sell down..not on recessionary concerns, but probably socio-political 'issues'. Regardless of how big a drop we see next summer/autumn, there looks to be extremely strong upside in the subsequent wave into late 2015/early 2016.


The Nikkei is starting to break out


As expected, we're seeing the first sign of a clear break into the 16000s. A January close >16k, will be enough to confirm that 17/18k, and 20k will eventually be hit..although the latter not until 2015. If the deflationary mess that is Japan can keep pushing higher, the stronger economies of the USA and Germany will no doubt do far better.


Looking ahead

The only thing due tomorrow is the EIA Oil and Gas inventory reports, not that those will of much interest to anyone.

*there is no sig' QE until January.
-


Evolve...or die.

There is now a clear fundamental shift going on in the World capital markets, and many are still utterly failing to see it..or are in complete denial about it. Even the cheer leaders on clown finance TV haven't the slightest inkling of what is right before their eyes. Then we have the US Dollar doomers - which even includes Peter Schiff, still touting hyper-inflation, all whilst money velocity remains low, and is itself still falling.

Very few see what is happening, but then...when in history have the mainstream ever understood what is going on..until some years has passed?

So, go ahead and short this market...and see how that works out for you. Equity bears had TWO last chances this summer to keep the broader bearish scenario viable, and have failed in both instances. Here is a closing thought to end another bullish day...how about we NEVER go below sp'1500...EVER...AGAIN ? How does that sound?

Goodnight from London