Monday 18 November 2013

3pm update - another QE fuelled day

For the main indexes, it is just another day. Moderate gains..to new historic highs..Dow 16k, sp'1800. The two notable groups not involved in this party are the precious metals..and the momo stocks.


sp'daily5


FB' daily


Summary

*price action in FB is starting to get real interesting.

Have we just seen a back test of the broken channel? If so..primary target is the 200 day MA..in the low 30s. That is a very considerable way lower, and would make for an interesting short-side play into early 2014.

I'm not involved in that trade yet..but...am considering it.
-


3.03pm.. ohh the humanity..the sp is -0.2%.

I can only say...don't get lost in the bearish hysteria.

Sig' QE-pomo tomorrow..and Thursday. Bears....beware!


3.13pm... looks like sub'3 wave is confirmed..and we're in sub'4...which should complete somewhere around 1787/85 tomorrow.



A sub'5 on Wed/Thursday..and then a bigger 4 down... NEXT WEEK.


3.27pm... sp -9pts @ 1789.. kinda interesting.

*watching cspan...the Bitcoin issue.. see: http://www.c-span.org/

Meanwhile..BTC 600/650.  Hmm


3.33pm.. TSLA just $10 away from my target zone. An 11% decline....wow.


3.37pm.. the target 1785/85 zone looks pretty good as support in the current down wave.

Certainly..I can only imagine 'some' of the bears touting more nonsense tonight about a collapse wave into end 2013.


3.45pm.. VIX +7%.. but still..we're only in the low 13s..and even 15 looks out of range this week.

Noting that VIX opex is the Wednesday open...it'd be surprising if we spike higher into that.

Bears should keep in mind..big QE tomorrow...and there is the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. A more sig' down wave looks viable next week, but even then...nothing major.


3.50pm.. Some interesting index disparity today..with the Dow a touch higher..but the tech is -1%.

Very much like we saw just a week or so ago.

Metals closing weak..and I'm guessing we see follow through tomorrow (I'm holding short, via SLV)
--
back at the close :)