Thursday 10 October 2013

Volatility smashed lower

With the main indexes soaring on hopes that Obama/Boehner will at least kick the debt ceiling can for another six weeks, market volatility has collapsed, with the VIX closing -15.9% @ 16.48. The strong up trend has been decisively broken, and a weekly VIX close in the 20s doesn't look possible.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly


Summary

Suffice to say, a major turn lower for the VIX, as especially seen on the bigger weekly cycle.

Those bearish hopes of a key weekly VIX close in the 20s...have essentially been destroyed..for probably at least a few weeks.

The two spikes on the daily chart were something I wasn't giving enough credence to. If the weekly candle closes red - with the current spike, it'd be suggestive that equities will rally for the rest of October..and into early November.

In which case, you'd have to assume new index highs, with sp'>1729.
-

more later..on the indexes