Thursday 10 October 2013

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are somewhat higher, sp +12pts, we're set to open around 1668. It will be important for equity bears to hold the market under 1670, with a close preferably <1660. Metals and Oil are both moderately higher.


sp'60min


sp'daily5


Summary

*note the 10MA on the daily at 1681, that is the line in the sand for the current down trend. So long as we don't go above that, the bears shouldn't have anything to be concerned about. Indeed, anyone wanting to short the opening rally, a simple short-stop of 1680/85 would be the level.


Opening gains

So, there is 'renewed debt talk' optimism I read across a few sites. Really? Its all fine now?

I think this opening rally is pure nonsense, and will not last. Certainly, I expect us to close lower than we open. Whether we can put in a red close...that is difficult to say, but I will hazard a guess that we close at least under 1660.

Arguably, this is merely a sell the opening rally..and short into the Friday close situation. The only reason not to, would be if both Obama and Boehner issue press releases that they have a provisional agreement.

*equity bulls need sp'1670 just to turn the weekly candle back to neutral, and I find it real difficult to envision a weekly close above 1660.

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Notable movers in early market are the momo stocks, NFLX is +3.8% @ $299.
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8.59am.. Metals (for an unknown reason) just got the hammer..and have swung wildly lower.. Gold -$12, with Silver swinging from gains of 1.8% to flat. 
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9.42am.. sp'1675... a break into the 1680s would bode serious problems.

All things considered though, this just seems like a stupid ramp for no real reason. It will be one to short, once things level out.