Wednesday 30 October 2013

2pm update - it wasn't called QE infinity for nothing

QE of $85bn, along with an effective zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) looks set to continue into next spring. Equities are tricky to call here, there is distinct opportunity for a 'sell the news' event, down to the 1750/30s into early November, yet the broader trend still remains starkly bullish.


sp'daily5



Summary

Well, lets see what the printing maniacs have to say.

*I'm still not clear on whether the Bernanke is due to do a press conf', ..it doesn't look like it.
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First key support is the daily 10Ma, in the low 1750s. after that..the gap zone in the low 1730s.

I simply can't see the market <1700 for the remainder of this year whilst the QE fuel continues to be pumped into the market.
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For the gold bugs out there...could be some major moves about to occur...

GLD, daily


Current daily candle is a black-fail, bearish candle. Yet...we've still two hours left. A closing gain of $25/30 would confirm a continued move to the low 140s.

..standing by!
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2.03pm... no taper...what a surprise. ..../s
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2.09pm.. some true comedy on clown finance TV..with liesman talking about 'unlimited gasoline' for jet plane that we're all flying aboard.

He is right of course...there is NO limit to what the Fed can print. I'm stlll bemused how many bears are still in denial about that.

Indexes holding together..and now offering a bull flag on the hourly chart into the close.
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2.14pm.. VIX showing a market that is calm... (those spikes remain...odd).



Looks like equity bears had their chance..and simply no downside power.
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2.20pm..twitchy market..and we just actually got a snap to the downside!

sp'5min


Gods help us all!
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2.30pm... It would seem we're headed for the low 1730s..within the near term. However you want to count this nonsense, 1775 now looks like a pre-FOMC spike-top..and a minor retracement of 40/45pts...barely 2.5% now underway.

As I've noted a few times lately..the VERY worse thing now..selling on the FOMC news...sucking in all the bears...overly hysterical about the 'big fall'...only for the market to hold the low 1700s..before renewed upside across Nov/Dec.

What is clear...QE continues..and we know what that broadly means for equities.


2.40pm..choppy, with the sp'1761.   Best guess remains..we'll trundle lower..across a few days to the low 1730s.

I realise many will be touting major bear doom tonight, but really, I..just can't see it..whilst the QE fuel continues..which will surely be all the way into spring 2014..at which point we're looking at sp'2000s.

Urghhh