sp'daily4b
sp'weekly7
Summary
Well, it was a pretty boring day of algo-bot melt. I can only hope this isn't the start of another giant multi-month wave of relentless QE-fuelled melt. I'm tired of the melt...way beyond tired in fact.
Seeing a green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart is pretty disheartening. We are still trading below the 10MA of 1674, but since the 1680s now seem likely, I'm really concerned the bigger bearish scenarios are now slipping away.
Without question, any daily close in the 1690s..will wreck just about every bearish outlook for the autumn. Indeed, the bears should now be desperate for some kind of major intra-day reversal, after any break into the 1680s.
Looking ahead
There really isn't any data of significance until Friday. Similarly, there is no sig' QE until Thursday.
The market looks set to simply melt higher for another day or two..into the sp'1680s.
If the weekly charts close as they are..or higher - this Friday, it bodes badly for the bears across the rest of September..and likely all the way into spring 2014.
Ohh, and here is something for the hyper-bulls out there...
AAPL, daily
AAPL looks set to get a golden cross at the Tuesday open. That will no doubt get some media coverage tomorrow, and the algo-bots will sure as hell be buying on such a signal. For all those bulls out there seeking new index highs...AAPL is one of the most bullish signs at the moment.
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Video update from Mr Permabull. Not surprisingly..he is bullish again.
Nasdaq has been resilient for weeks, and as I noted at the weekend, it was a mere 1% from new highs. Todays ramp has indeed taken the tech sector into new territory, this could be a precursor to the rest of the market rallying to new highs.
Nasdaq Comp', weekly
On any perspective, its a clear break above the previous six week plateau.
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*bonus chart...
sp'weekly8 - the bullish outlook
I realise the counts are always dubious, but still, what if 1627 was a key low? It sure didn't feel like it, and the bounce so far, isn't exactly soaring, but does it matter?
If we close this week above the 10MA..in the 1680s...then really, its all over for the bears. Bulls have a 'Santa rally' and 'green shoots of spring' to look forward to. If 1627 was a key low, then this nonsense is set for relentless ramp for at least six months.
I'm utterly bemused when I talk to the permabull traders out there, and ask 'since we're going up again, why the hell would it stop in Oct/November?'.
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*I remain long VIX, but it sure is getting a little concerning. I'll likely wave the white flag, on any move into the 1690s.
Goodnight from London