With further equity weakness concluding the month, the VIX naturally climbed a little further, settling +1.2% @ 17.01 - having earlier spiked to 17.81. Across the week, the VIX gained a very significant 21.7%. Near term target remains VIX briefly in the low 20s.
For the equity bears out there, the VIX is highly suggestive of more market downside to come.
Just a look back at some of the recent multi-week VIX up cycles, offers the 200 MA as a very valid target..and right now that is VIX 20.13
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) on the big weekly chart is now positive cycle, and it would be very surprising if we don't at least briefly break into the VIX 20s in the current cycle.
*hourly VIX cycle is suggestive of a lower VIX early Tuesday, but on any fair outlook, I can't imagine the VIX <15 for some weeks.
more later..on the indexes