Wednesday 28 August 2013

Blue turns to Red

The market looks set for further declines in the coming days, not least pressured by the looming western-powers attack on Syria. Primary downside target remains the lower weekly bollinger, currently at sp'1563, and that should equate to VIX in the low 20s.


sp'weekly7



sp'weekly'9d - best 'doomer case'


Summary

Yesterday I ended with 'four blue candles'.

Today, I can note that the fourth candle has now turned a decisive bearish red, and the bigger downside target now looks viable in the coming week or two, perhaps even days.

Unquestionably, this market is very weak, and the momentum is firmly on the side of the bears. A return to the June lows look very viable, and that should be plenty enough to get the VIX into the lows 20s.


RE: 'doomer scenario' weekly'9d

For now, it remains a mere 'hope'...a 'dream'. I need to see a clear hit of the lower weekly bollinger before this scenario can be seriously considered. Yet so far..it does look good into next week...and if the target is hit, bears should be seeking a strong bounce, before putting in a critical lower high, somewhere around 1675.


Looking ahead

Wednesday has some housing data at 10am..along with the usual EIA Oil report.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of $3bn, although as today showed, if the bears are strong enough..they can actually overcome the Benny bux fuel.
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So..after a largely frustrating few days, I decided to get involved, and chase the market lower. I am LONG VIX, from the high 16s, and seeking an exit in the 20/21s..before the 3 day weekend.

*it was good to hear from some of you today, all comments...welcome.

Goodnight from London

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Video from Ron Walker....



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