Friday 21 June 2013

10am update - opex chop

Market is seeing moderate gains, but even if the sp closes +15/20pts, it doesn't do much to negate the post FOMC declines. A bounce to 1620/25 looks very viable by late Monday, with VIX in the 16s. Metals are holding gains, but Oil is now showing weakness.


sp'15min






vix'60min



Summary

So, bounce is underway, after what looks to be a very clean '5 little waves down' forming sub'1.

A two day bounce seems more likely than just one, based on previous cycles, and the fact underlying trend does remain UP. Also, Monday is a QE day of 3bn.
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*I remain on the sidelines..awaiting a two day bounce to play out, never mind the fact its almost the weekend, and its opex.


10.13am.. baby bull flag on the 5min chart...



I'm not too confident though about it, not leas with the MACD cycle ticking lower, perhaps for another hour.
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10.34am... R2K..and other indexes kinda close to breaking new lows. VIX still red though, and well below  yesterdays high.

I'm guessing this will hold.

10.38am..floor breached. Hmm.. That should rattle all the weaker bulls out!

Just noticed the transports... -0.7%, thats pretty significant.