Monday 8 April 2013

Closing Brief

The market opened a touch weak, but with powerless bears, the market rallied to what is a natural resistance barrier in the low 1560s. We're now within 1% of the cycle high, and its understandable for those not following the weekly charts, that they might think new highs are coming.


sp'60min


Summary

So..we indeed closed @ 1562.
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Re: the count.

I remain VERY unsure how to count the current nonsense. Fridays big gap lower was certainly the strongest down move since the 1573 high, but it doesn't really count well as a third wave, not least since it had no follow through.
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Regardless, I'm calling Friday low as a wave'1, with today's close - and including perhaps minor Tuesday upside as a 2'.

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Lets be clear...

Bears MUST take out the 1538 low in the next down wave. I suppose we could chop around sideways for a day or two, but whenever the next wave starts, bears had better be trading in the low 1530s..if not the 1520s.

VIX remains remarkably low, and there is very considerable upside available across this week.
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.