Saturday 6 April 2013

Bears still having problems

The market has seen an initial decline from sp'1573 to 1539, yet the bulls are still strong, and the latter day recovery with a close in the 1550s made for a frustrating and difficult weekly close. Near term trend does still look weak, with a mid-term primary target of sp'1485/70.


sp'daily3 - fib levels



sp'daily8 - Bollinger and Keltner bands


sp'daily5b - best guess


Summary

Indeed....today was a problematic one. Being patient is something I am finding increasingly difficult again in this market.

I was lacking patience in an Oil (short) trade on Tuesday, and today I was overly patient with an index (short) trade. It remains 'rarely' easy to meddle in what remains the western world's greatest rigged casino.
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The fib' chart is pretty clear, assuming 1573 was the high, the first reasonable downside target across April/May is the 1485/70 zone. Its a good target, since the old resistance high from last September were the 1470s.

The second chart is an odd one I realise, but its just to emphasise the 'likely' range we have in the coming days. Bulls are going to find it VERY difficult to break above the mid 1560s - see also hourly chart, whilst bears need to see a break under the key low of 1538.

A break under 1538 will open up the 1530/25 area, where there will be even more buying support.


Tricky times ahead

For the bears, the days..and weeks ahead are probably going to be just as difficult as the previous few years. Any major gaps lower at the open are still being bought..and today wasn't even a POMO day!

Well, its the weekend..so...have a good one.

Goodnight from London
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*next main posting, late Saturday.

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Video Bonus..from Oscar
*note that the video was created around Friday lunch time.
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Interesting that even Mr Carboni is having problems. I think the OMNI was calling for a higher open on Friday. The Transports remains a key index to follow..and if - as I believe it is, breaking lower, then we do have a multi-week down cycle now underway.