Tuesday 16 April 2013

3pm update - closing hour weakness?

The smaller 15/60min cycles are highly suggestive of weakness into the close. Further, if sub'4 wave is complete, then sub'5 should at least take out the recent low of sp'1552. A break into the 1540s seems viable early Wednesday. VIX closing in the low 15s looks viable.


sp'15min



sp'60min


Summary

Lets see what the bears got in them, after what has been a pretty bullish day.

There ARE plenty of signs of weakness out there, not least of them the metals - slipping from earlier highs, the miners, and Oil.
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*I will hold short overnight..seeking an exit in the sp'1545/40s, with VIX 15.75 / 16.25


UPDATE 3.33.pm ...bulls trying to ramp this into the close...urghh



Any price in the 1574s would ruin the ABC idea, and then the last hope is a 1-5 count, - which would suggest this is actually a 2 wave.

3.42pm...sp'  new high of day, and we're now in serious danger zone for bears. Anything over 1580, and it messes up the near term bearish outlook.
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back at the close.