Tuesday 23 April 2013

11am update - was that the RS top?

The market has seen some reasonable gains this morning, most indexes up around 1%, with the VIX slipping 5% into the mid 13s. However, all things considered, there is a very significant possibility that this was a RS top. Bears now need a daily close back in the low 1560s.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

Well, I've made my move, and I'm actually pretty content with how things have gone. Yes, we've seen a spike to 1576, but that's tolerable.

Bears should hope we can get a close in the low 1560s today or tomorrow. That will easily allow for an attempt to take out last Thursday afternoons low of 1536 - by this Friday.

*I am heavy short from sp'1572. seeking an initial exit in the low 1540s or so, but will adjust as the week continues.
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Precious metals are weak..Silver is sitting on the edge of the cliff, not that I'm inclined to short it here.


A new low would open up the 17s...rather fast.
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UPDATE 11.22am.. sp'1577s...although the VIX is holding above the earlier lows.

I was looking at the Transports & R2K, those hourly cycles should 'in theory' be levelling out across the next few hours, and then first signs of a turn lower near the close. 
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11.37am, well the next obvious soft resistance is the 1580 level..barely 1% from the all time highs.

Bears sure don't want to see a close in the 1580s..no matter how 'generally' bearish the weekly charts still are.
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