Wednesday, 17 April 2013

11am update - sub'5..nearing completion

It looks like the original 5 wave decline was right. Bears should arguably be seeking an exit across the next hour or so. This market seems very unlikely to break 1538 today..or this week. VIX is +22%..back in the 17s, which is something of a surprise.




So, a little snap lower, and the bulls are getting a little rattled.

I am indeed surprise at the power of the VIX right now.

There is one theory that yesterday was merely a sub'2, in which case today we'll slice right through key support 1538..and just keep falling to 1480 - by THIS FRIDAY.

My best that won't be the case

*I am merely on the sidelines now.

UPDATE 11.13am...sp'1446s..we are right at the zone where I'd like to see this level out.

ANY break <1538..would be a critical break, and would invalidate the current outlook. If thats the case, you'd see VIX in the 20s by the close...

but..I'm still guessing the original count IS correct.

11.28am... I'm making a bold move. Going long OIL (via USO)..

Seeking the low 32s tomorrow/Friday.

I just can't see the indexes breaking <1538, in which case we generally see upside into Friday opex.