Friday 26 April 2013

10am update - morning weakness

After a 5 day rally/bounce, the market is seeing moderate weakness. Bears should be desperate for a weekly close <1570. That won't be easy, but a 1% daily decline is not exactly asking too much either. VIX is higher, but only a few percent.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

So, the GDP data comes in a little lower than the market expected, but hey, it has to be said..2.5% sure isn't a negative number.
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The hourly chart suggest there is channel support @ 1580, so it'd be useful if we can break that this morning.

Baring a break...and close above the recent 1597 high, I still think there is a high probability that the market is merely putting in a marginally lower high.  It'll take some days to know if that's the case, and by then, we would be challenging the 1536 low.
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*I am short Oil - via USO, from the opening low 33s.


First target is low 32s.
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10.12am.. Despite it being very minor so far, the weakness IS out there, but it looks like bears first real chance of significant downside will now be Monday.

Problem with that, is the weekly charts will close today somewhat bullish. Hmm