Tuesday 5 February 2013

Volatility knocked back

With the main indexes opening moderately higher, and continuing to battle upward across the day, the VIX naturally slipped back again, closing -6.5% @ 13.72  There is still some underlying upward pressure on the VIX, but even the lowly 16s still seem light years away.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



Summary

The one 'very minor' discrepancy of today which a few might have noticed was the VIX.

Since today's index gains effectively almost exactly negated yesterdays declines, we can very reasonably compare the movement in the VIX.

Whilst the indexes clawed back ALL the declines, the VIX still held onto around 5% of yesterdays gains. I suppose that amount might only merit as 'noise', but still its perhaps something to recognise.


The problem the bears now have is that we are right back to square one though.

Frankly, even if the market dropped dow 250pts tomorrow, such declines can't be trusted. The question would then be, would the VIX even manage to break into the 16s?

It remains largely a fearless market...driven on mainstream 'everything is going to be okay' hysteria that has now endured for almost four years.

more later..on the indexes