Saturday 5 January 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The indexes closed higher for a fourth consecutive day, lead once again by the transports, and the Rus'2000 small cap. We have clear breakouts, and there is some buying behind it. The near term trend remains unquestionably to the upside.


IWM



SP



Trans


Summary

The Monday open of sp'1398 seems like a long term ago now, and considering we closed the week @ 1466, the bulls can justifiably feel pleased with how 2013 has begun.

The most bullish aspect of all has to be the Rus'2000 index, which has closed at new historic highs. With the transports closing comfortably in the 5500s, it really has turned out to be one mighty bullish week.

The SP/Dow are lagging a little, with the Nasdaq a little further behind.

Considering everything, it'd seem we'll somehow claw our way higher to at least sp1490..if not 1510/20 by early February. At that point the VIX would very likely be in the 12s, if not the 11s.

It will be at that point that a re-short would seem very much more viable.

The debt ceiling issue - which caused havoc in July/August 2011, will very likely cause at least some 'moderate concern' this coming late Feb/March.

A little more later