Thursday 3 January 2013

10am update - morning chop

As expected, the market opens a little weaker, but its nothing for the bears to start getting excited over. Underlying momentum on the daily index charts is now positive, and still rising. Even if indexes are flat for the next few days, the bias will remain to the upside.


sp'daily5



vix'daily


Summary

I'm focusing on the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle. This is merely day'3 up. and there is NO sign of a turn, or levelling phase.

Its going to take at least 2-3 days to have any chance of seeing the upside momentum stall.

Thus...no point considering a re-short until next week.
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Since we're so close to the 1474 high, its easily feasible we'll gap over that early next week, in which case the monthly charts would easily allow 1490/1510.

It has to be said, it would be a hell of a lot safer shorting in the low 1500s than where we currently are.
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Mr Dollar remains higher, a move into the 81s next week would spice things up.

XOM/CVX, I'm still liking these as very significant signs of weakness in the main market.



Huge companies, and both look weak, especially CVX, which is due a death X within 2 weeks.
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