Tuesday 11 December 2012

Not much left of 2012

There are now less than three weeks remaining of the year, a mere 14 trading days, of which one (Dec'24) will be shortened. Mr Market remains utterly complacent, with the VIX @ 16, and the SP' a mere 3.5% from the sp'1474 highs in mid-September. Incredible.


sp'daily3 - news to come



sp'monthly3, rainbow, count


sp'daily5b - scenarios


Summary

This week will be all about the Fed. Will they follow through with their planned - as announced at the Sept' FOMC, of 45bn t-bond buying, beginning in January? With unemployment data (official Disneyland version) now at 7.7%, might the Bernanke cancel the planned bond buying?

If that happened, I'm sure Mr Market would be pretty upset, and would quickly break <sp'1400, with yet another test of the big 200 day MA, now @ 1386.

However, there is the ultimate problem of who will then buy the bonds, if the Bernanke doesn't ? This would not be such a problem though if ALL fiscal cliff measures are allowed to pass, slashing the US fiscal deficit almost in half. See, there is a bright side to every doomer outcome!


The Big Count..unchanged

The original monthly count remains unchanged. My broad outlook is for low sp'1200s in early 2013, with the next multi-month up cycle starting in March/April.

As for the near term, I'm guessing we see a decline, but then one final bounce. That bounce may easily fail to break a new high >1423 (scenario D), and merely rollover into year end.
-

There is nothing much to move the market tomorrow - unless some US politician opens his mouth, and we're more than likely going to see a repeat of today's 'nothing'.

Goodnight from London