Friday 21 December 2012

11pm update - ES futures flash-crash 50pts

The ES futures flash-crashed 50pts in the early hours of overnight trading, a result of a shelved vote on Boehner's fiscal cliff 'plan B'. A major bounce occurred though, and we have stabilised around 20-25 ES pts lower. We are currently set to open around sp'1420.


sp'daily5 - AH special update chart


Summary

So, the SP'500 equivalent was down around 50pts..briefly. Now, its important to note other indexes were not as badly affected, down around 30/35pts equivalent.

However, on any basis, this is the biggest overnight move since March 2011 (the Japan quake time frame)

If we open around sp'1420, there is VERY high likelihood VIX will open at least a little over the key VIX 20 threshold....which is one of the key warning signs of trouble.

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updates..for one further hour..then I'm going to collapse, much like the ES did earlier.
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An important remind on the key sp'500 thresholds...

sp'1413, 1398..and then the 200 day MA @ 1387.

I do not see any 'likely' chance of taking out the 200 day MA tomorrow..or for that matter..Monday.

UPDATE 11.15pm ...I'm suspecting a baby bear flag on the overnight futures...

There is no reason -considering the earlier market shock wave, why we can't open at the earlier ES lows around sp'1393.

UPDATE 11.35pm ...we're still holding declines of -23pts...we're set to open sp'1420.

I don't think bears should get too concerned about the initial bounce...

Lets see  how the morning plays out.

*automatic pre-scheduled post due at midnight EST....  and thats it from me I think..

goodnight everyone!