Friday 21 December 2012

10am update - eyes on the bigger charts

The market opens somewhat slowly, but we're now lurking in the sp'1420s..approaching rising support @ sp'1421 on the hourly charts.  VIX is 12% higher..just a touch under the 20 threshold.

*special note, keep in mind that the ES spike lower was around sp'1393..so, if there is a late day upset/panic, that would the level to watch for.


sp'60min





sp'daily5




VIX'60min


Summary

Its going to be a busy day. Boehner is due to appear around 10am..and no doubt there will probably be other political speakers across the day.

This twitchy market could flash-crash at any point.
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*I'll highlight the more important bigger charts as the day goes on.

More than anything, the VIX weekly is key. The VIX could explode into the 30s later next week, despite it being Christmas trading week.
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I'd like to see a close <1413, but thats possibly just overly hopeful.

re: black candle on VIX hourly. Normally I would be concerned about it, but considering everything..not today.

VIX should break 20' 'soon'.. at which point we'll see if can hit last nights ES low of sp'1393.
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 UPDATE 10.20am We're seeing a little bounce, as they battle it out.

I realise some actually think we'll close green, although I find that difficult to imagine.
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sp'weekly


I'd like a close in the low sp'1410s...creating a second spiky weekly candle. That'd set up the next few weeks, with a move into the sp'1200s.

Long day ahead...

UPDATE 10.35am With the VIX up just 5%, I just picked up some VIX calls.. Jan'27s.


A weekly VIX close >20 would be very bearish for next week