Friday 2 November 2012

Volatility swings higher into the weekend

The opening index gains failed to hold for the fifth time in six days, and we saw the VIX battle higher across the day, closing 5% higher into the mid 17s.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily



VIX'weekly


Summary

An interesting day, especially when you look at the hourly chart. The opening candle was a classic hollow-red candle - often (but not always) a sign of a reversal in progress.

The reversal did indeed occur, and the VIX closed noticeably higher by the close, and continued to rally in the brief 15mins of AH trading.

The daily cycle is a bit of a mess, bears really need a daily close >20 early next week to have confidence of 'trouble ahead'.

The weekly cycle closed a touch lower on the week, having hit the declining upper bollinger. Again, it will be important to see a weekly VIX close >20. Maybe next Friday ?
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More later, looking at the indexes.