Thursday 15 November 2012

2pm update - moody bull maniacs

This is day'7 down in the current cycle, and around 2 months since sp'1474. The deluded bull maniacs must be getting really moody now. When will the bears be contained...and by whom? VIX is weak, certainly no sign of an explosion >20.


Trans'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

The tranny on the hourly looks like its floored - although it appeared that way at the open. We should have a very clear up wave develop across the next 1-2 trading days.

I remain sitting back..taking a break, and waiting for a significant bounce before re-boarding the bear train.

In theory, there should be a good short-trade (wave'5) from around sp'1365/70 to around sp'1345/35, with the floor no later than early next Wednesday.
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I have very high confidence much lower levels are coming on a multi-month basis, but it will be difficult in the near term to discern the smaller trends. As they say..'if in doubt...get out!'


UPDATE 2.15pm

For those seeking one final move lower in the indexes..there is a chance of that.

The VIX appears to have completed a tiny 4' wave down..with a 5' left.

So, there is still a chance we'll sell lower (yet again) into the close, target would be sp'1345/40.


Regardless of that, I won't be chasing it, and remain content to watch these micro-moves play out.