Monday 12 November 2012

2pm update - Indexes maxed out ?

A relatively quiet start to the week, and with two hours left of the trading day, the indexes sure look tired. The VIX is finally starting to show the very first sign of a floor, with a spiky tail.


sp'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

Yes, the VIX is super weak, much more than I expected, but as ZH noted, it is the near term VIX that is weak, the further out months are not really weakening at all. So, once again, the VIX anomaly is really just that...an anomaly..but largely understandable.

Indexes sure look tired around sp'1385. Who wants to be going long this afternoon?

I realise some bulls will suggest that this is just a sign of building a floor..perhaps. Yet we've seen ZERO sign of a capitulation in the market, and we're still only 6% from the QE highs.
--

So, I'm staying short, will hold overnight, and see how the price action is tomorrow.

*bears should remain pleased the $ is holding together >81.
-
back at 3pm

UPDATE 2.30pm..so much for the spike..the VIX falling again. Next soft support, hourly 200 MA @17.72