Wednesday 3 October 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The broader market closed broadly flat, although the indexes were acting a little more independently today, with the Dow and Tech leading the way lower earlier in the day.

The broader formation on the daily charts is a clear bear flag though, within what remains a very strong uptrend since the June low of sp'1266


IWM



SP'daily5



Transports


Summary

So, we saw the sp' break under 1440, but it sure didn't close under it, and that's often what matters more. The close was slightly bullish, and the bears should again be concerned about yet another higher open, the daily chart would allow 1455 tomorrow. Any action over 1460 would arguably break over the larger bull flag/pennant (pink), and would open up new index highs next week. Thats the concern anyway.

My best guess (and admittedly, also a 'hope'), is that we still break the bear flag to the downside, and at least hit 1420/15 by the Friday close. From there, I'd guess we jump higher into next week, perhaps on more hope/annoucement of a Spanish bailout request.

The tranny remains a weak mess, regaining a monthly close >5000, seems a very tough task.

A little more later