Saturday 20 October 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The broader market ended the week badly. The main indexes declined by around 1.5%, lead by the Nasdaq which slumped 2.2% The VIX confirmed the declines with a close +13.5% @ 17.06. Provisionally speaking, it looks pretty bearish for the Monday open. The first level to take out will be the sp'1427 level.


IWM



Nasdaq Comp



Dow



NYSE Comp



SP'daily5



Transports



Summary

Well, this week was a bit of a roller coaster. Monday opened a touch lower @ 1427, only for the bulls to wrestle back control, and beginning a 3 day rally up to sp'1462. The rally failed to hold though after consistently bad earnings reports, and todays' close of 1433 is about as good as the bears could have hoped for.


Breaking open the crash-door - issues for next week

I probably shouldn't use the C word here, but still, its a valid consideration. There are a LOT of key levels to take out early next week, if the bears are going to be able to decisively put a halt to what has been another major bull rally since the June sp'1266 low.

First target...the Monday low of 1427
Secondary...the 1397 low

If bears can get a daily close <1397, then I will very much be targeting the 1325/00 level within 'a matter of days, certainly before the US election'.

Right now, I can't see a break <1300 any time soon. Perhaps the fiscal cliff 'crisis' in late November/early December will be the catalyst for SP'1200 (as suggested via the monthly index charts).

A long day..but a good one. Next update - Saturday, probably dealing with those important weekly charts/

Goodnight from London