Tuesday 18 September 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

A relatively quiet day for the main market. It would appear we may have put in a short term top at sp'1474, and that we're now set for a decline to at least 1430. For the doomer bears out there, 1430 as the likely next 'higher low' has to be a truly sickening thing to consider.


IWM



Sp'daily5



Transports


Summary

Both the tranny and the Rus'2000 small cap are again leading the way lower. I'd guess we generally fall into late Wednesday/Thursday.

*Friday is Quadruple witching, and will probably be a bit choppy. It would generally seem little point taking on new positions until next Monday - whether bullish or bearish.
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I remain short, seeking an exit around 1430 later this week.

As things are, with both the weekly and monthly cycles outright bullish, the notion of 'October doom' seems very unlikely to put it politely. Yes, there is the uncertainty of the election, and the looming fiscal cliff, but QE3 is here, and the usual market rules no longer apply.

Those who are still looking for doom, what will be absolutely critical to look for in the next up cycle (early October), do we put in yet another higher high >1474, or do we put in a lower high - something we've not done once since the we floored at sp'1266 in early June.

A little more later