Friday 20 July 2012

1pm update - the close is what matters

Until we close today, none of this minor decline is to be trusted. The VIX is up almost 10%, but is barely at 17, that is still crazy low.


sp'60min


sp'daily



Summary

If we keep slipping into the close, I'll probably exit, and look for a better entry Monday.

There remains ZERO fear in the US markets still. All morning both clown networks were relentlessly touting further gains, with an attempt on sp'1422. Further, lots of talk about AAPL earnings (next Tuesday I believe).

Ugly market, and since its opex, we could easily still see a latter day ramp for no good reason.
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EU indexes were smashed lower today, not least Spain and Italy, the leading PIIGS that will of course eventually default on a Sunday night. The only issue is 'what Sunday?'. Could be mere months, or years - it remains the crucial unknown.

Anyway, the mood is turning, but could still take a few days to gain some proper downside momentum.