Monday 9 July 2012

11am update - its oh so quiet

Morning weakness continues, but its still very minor moves.

The VIX daily/weekly cycles are still warning of major increases in volatility, but..until we're over 20, none of these 5/7/10% moves can be taken seriously.
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sp'60min



VIX, daily, rainbow


Blue candle so far today on the rainbow chart, a green candle by the close would be a bonus to the bears, and set up the next move to hit VIX 20.


Summary

First soft resistance, the hourly 10MA @ 1353. I'd be very surprised if we can break into the 1360s today. We 'should' on any basis at least hit 1340 in the near term.

Its kinda starting to look like we might just trundle sideways all the way across the day, merely awaiting the first earnings report from AA.

I remain short, first exit target 1340/35..which now looks likely not until tomorrow.