Monday 11 June 2012

1pm update - still a mixed mess

Things remain very confusing on the smaller time frame. Are we going to spend the whole of this week forming a wave'b down to 1300..even 1290? Or will the 60min cycle level out by the end of today, and then further gains Tues/Wednesday...with a fair chance of 1350/60 near the end of the week?

Considering the underlying lunacy of this market, the latter remains a very valid possibility still - not least since the VIX is up a mere 2%

Holding to original overall target of 1350/60..as the prime re-short level.


Sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

It remains a tricky market...from a permabear viewpoint....

Daily/weekly trend cycle says 'NO!' to shorting yet.
60min cycle is now probably close to levelling out.

Yet..at the same time...a wave'B retrace would probably be around sp'1305/1295..before a C' up to 1350/60s - which might occur as late as next week.
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So..a bit confusing, and I won't be part of this mess until target level is hit. The one thing I am pretty sure of, 1350s will be a pretty good level to short this weak market.