Wednesday 6 June 2012

1pm update - everything is fixed in Europe..yay!

Mr Market is acting today as though everything is all fine again. In reality, this move is certainly partly technical, and partly due to a reverse cascade UP. A lot of bears will have got the kick today, including many at the 1300/05 level around 10am.

The size of increase today is very much suggestive that wave'1 down is complete, in which case we are on our way to the wave'2 target of 1350..or a little higher.

The monthly cycle target remains sp'1100, which really puts today's nonsense into perspective.


Sp' weekly - scenario


Summary

Just one simple chart this hour, the weekly cycle.

Best guess is 'B'. A move to the 1350s or so, before a major and FAST move lower into the 1100s. The motivation for such a drop...

-Monthly index trend is down, especially all those world indexes (see weekend post)
-FOMC, will fail to inspire the market, and market will realise QE3 NOT coming until later in the year.
-Greek Elections - new coalition could easily announce (Sunday night event?) a plan to exit the Euro and/or default on all intl. debt obligations. The attention will then switch to Spain..which is of course the giant economic ticking bomb in the EU. Spain remains too big to fail..and arguably too big to bail out.
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*I am most definitely sitting this out, the next event to come remains Bernanke, Thursday'10am.

More later!