Wednesday 6 June 2012

11am update - another nonsense rally

This mornings hit of sp'1292/95 was not that unexpected, but 1305 is certainly starting to appear as a breakout. Yet the 15/60min cycles are on any basis VERY over-stretched. Clearly, anyone going short in the opening 30mins 'should' in theory have already got the boot.

*interestingly, the dow'30 is not yet breaking about what may have been the minute wave'3 low, although we're only talking about a few more points.


Dow'60min



Sp'15min



sp'60min



Summary

I'm sitting this nonsense out, its too annoying, and I'll be more confident after the Bernanke is out of the way tomorrow morning.

Let me be clear, there is STILL potential for a move lower, even below the recent 1267 low - even though that seems unlikely. Yet, the risk to anyone shorting is high, and already today we've seen another key level taken out, which is starting to become a reverse cascade UP.

*considering the size of the rally, the VIX is only moderately lower, 5% or so. If the VIX can somehow close green...that'd be one key sign that one final low is still due.

Regardless of all that, today is a good example of why stops are useful!

More later...