Thursday 17 May 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures were dow+60pts overnight, but we are now -20pts.
Jobs data came in at 370k vs 365k expected. There are two more pieces of econ-data at 10am, so that is sure to help shape the rest of the market day.

Dow'60min


Summary

We've seen 11 days down, and justifiably many (myself included), are looking for at least a 3-5 day bounce. Some are even predicting new highs sp>1422 directly from current levels. I'm still guessing the broader picture holds, we put in another lower high..and then rollover again for a wave'3.

Bulls should again seek a close above the hourly 10MA, which on the dow is 12661 -  a mere 63pts higher than current levels.  On the dow chart you can see that such a close would be outside of what may be a wedge, one that 'should' lead to the market snapping higher either later today or tomorrow.

If the market is not at least 1% higher than where where we are now by the Friday close, I'd be concerned about Monday. Yet, Monday would be day'14 of a down cycle, I find that hard to imagine.

I plan to hold index-longs into Friday, although I'm looking for an exit around sp'1340/45, and maybe sit it out across the weekend.

Good wishes for Thursday