Sp' daily, bearish scenario
So..where are we?
We have a large H/S, and a good break below the rising trend line (grey line, May 8'th). The 10MA has re-crossed below the 50day MA - a big bearish sign!
In terms of the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, we are cycling back upward...however, I expect this to fail and rollover by next Thursday/Friday. Such a rollover below the 0 line, after often the very best warnings of major snaps to the downside..
The 1340 level will be the next warning to anyone who is still looking for another high sp>1422. A break under 1340 likely means a fast move to 1270/80 - where the 200day MA is. Interestingly, in May' 2010, the market fell 30pts under the 200 day on that infamous flash-crash Thursday. So, perhaps we could look for sp'1250 - that would certainly be the next level under the 200MA. SP'1200 would appear to be 'best doom case' for May/June.
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If the count on the daily chart is correct, then wave'3 (black count) should start no later than the end of next week.
Lots more to cover, but that can be done over the weekend. The bears have some important planning to do!
More later..on what is becoming a quiet Friday afternoon.