Monday 9 April 2012

Something for the doomsters

Hmm, it is a very mixed and conflicted situation today. Near term, I'm still looking for a little bounce. Here is something for the doomster bears to dwell on..and feel excited about.

NYSE composite, weekly


This is the second most bearish chart I have in my collection (I will probably throw the other one out there after the close).

The weekly MACD momentum cycle will go negative cycle NEXT week, unless, we get a significant bounce, probably to the equivalent of at least 1400 by this Friday close. Sp'1400 by end week looks pretty difficult, not least if Tue/Wed takes us to 1375/65.

So...the bears do have a very bearish piece of evidence to support their outlook - and that would be at least in the 1300/1250 kinda range. A few traders I follow would doubtless suggest sp'1150 (which is the base of the monthly ascending wedge - which I post enough of).
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If the above chart was the only one I was following, then today it tells me that...
1. there is more downside to come
2. The down moves will accelerate next week, and 'probably' last at least 3-6 weeks) - see previous down cycles lengths.
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Anyway, its just something to consider, whilst the 60min cycles are saying 'BUY, at least for a little bounce'