Thursday 19 April 2012

Daily Cycles...on the edge

A good end to the day for the bears, but as they say...we're not out of the woods yet. We have bear flags everywhere, but we need to see them confirmed with clear breaks. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow or even Friday, but it'd sure have to be in the first few days of next week.

Any bear who is heavy-short with 'serious' money would be wise to have a last ditch stop of at least equivalent to sp'1410/15. Anything above that, and the near/mid term bearish outlooks all get violated.


IWM, daily, rainbow




Nasdaq comp, daily, rainbow



Dow, daily



VIX, daily


Summary

We're at a decisive junction. After a pretty strong 2 day rally, today was a good minor victory for the bears, yet its not enough.

Bears must break the market lower, Sp'1356 will confirm the original wave'1 and 2' theory., and that we are in a '3 wave. Meanwhile, the VIX needs to break >21..and that should then rise to 24 within a few days.

Thursday will be most interesting.

Goodnight from London