Tuesday 17 April 2012

12pm Update

So the maniacs have indeed got what appears like a C wave upwards. Most of the short term bears have been getting kicked out and covering, hence what appears a strong up move..is really not soundly based.

SP'60min


Sp' trending up very consistently, although the 60min cycle is starting to look toppy. I'd guess we form a baby bull flag across the rest of the day, which sets up tomorrow for one final mini jump higher.

*see pink line...8pts from base of wave'1 to base of wave'B...
add 8pts to recent 1388 high.....   1396 peak?

Its just something to consider for tomorrow.


VIX'60min



I would refer you back to the VIX weekly - posted recently, where its important that VIX does not fall below the 10MA - currently 16.84 (will probably be 16.75/50 tomorrow)


Looking ahead to the closing hour

As noted earlier, Bulls will want a close over the 10MA, preferably 1382+. Right now, that seems pretty reasonable target to expect. That opens up a further 8/12pts tomorrow..getting us right to the target zone.

I intend to whack the Short button tomorrow morning, once we level out on the 15min cycle..anywhere over 1395 is a valid place in my view. 1405 would be much better of course.


Special note.
see Pebble's latest posting...http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/

Pebble seems to be going with the same outlook as me. I've no idea how far down Pebble's target is, but I'd guess its at least 1340 !
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Time to cook...more later..probably at 2pm