IWM weekly - near the edge
IWM's bull flag/pennant is in real danger. A weekly close under 80 would arguably cancel out the flag, and suggest a mid-term top is in. So, the doomer bears need to look for 79s..or lower this Friday/early next week.
Again, its interesting to note that the Rus'2000 small cap never did break the May 2011 high, and thus the 'October-March wave was a 2' theory is still intact for this index...just. Although I'd argue the fact that the nasdaq, dow, and SP' - (all posting new highs) over-ride this lagging R2K index.
VIX weekly, momentum still crawling back up
Last weeks fall which broke a 6 week flooring pattern is still causing a problem for the VIX. However, the underlying momentum is still recovering, and is set to go positive cycle in about 3-5 weeks - which will be near the end of April. Another case of 'sell in May. and go away'?
Mid-term 3-6 month outlook
We're at an important time. The ramp since the October low - in both US and world indexes, has been pretty extreme. We've seen the vix decline from 49 to briefly hit 13s. Of course the VIX can remain floored and trundle around in a narrow 3-5pt range for many months - as previous cycles often display.
For the moment at least, we have no real sell signals in the indexes, but we sure aren't looking as secure as we were just a few days ago. I'm still guessing (and trading it that way) we make a further move up into next week, and early April, with targets of IWM 86/87 and SP'1440.
Goodnight