Tuesday 27 March 2012

US Dollar..a bullish count

Good morning. The Futures wheel is moderately green. Follow through of +0.5% or more today would be a major victory for the bulls, and seal the deal on a charge to 1435/40 by end of the week. Meanwhile, lets take a look at the US Dollar. Here is something to consider in the coming weeks and into early summer.

US Dollar - weekly, a bullish count


This is something I put together this morning. It assumes the mid-term outlook is still bullish - primarily as a result of the eventual (in my view) implosion of much of the Euro-zone members. There are of course huge issues regarding further QE, but I'll set that aside for now.

Key issues...

1. Look for a low early summer, maybe we are in a standard ABC correction from wave'1 (black number). Dollar bulls will not want to see USD below 75 under any circumstances.

2. If the Dollar does floor in early summer, we will want to see a pretty strong back upward move to break the recent high of 81.78. A move into the 82s.. and certainly 83s..would surely lead to a move to around 83/84 (the 'Benny @ Jackson Hole'/August 2010 high).
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Good wishes for Tuesday trading.